Senate Bill 25-180 Rerevised

A Bill for an Act

• Page 1, Line 101Concerning the method of calculating state population

• Page 1, Line 102growth for purposes of calculating state fiscal year

• Page 1, Line 103spending pursuant to section 20 of article X of the

• Page 1, Line 104state constitution.

Bill Summary

(Note: This summary applies to this bill as introduced and does not reflect any amendments that may be subsequently adopted. If this bill passes third reading in the house of introduction, a bill summary that applies to the reengrossed version of this bill will be available at http://leg.colorado.gov/.)

Joint Budget Committee. Section 20 of article X of the state constitution (TABOR) requires the maximum annual percentage change in state fiscal year spending to equal inflation plus the percentage change in state population in the prior calendar year adjusted for revenue changes approved by voters. Although TABOR does not specify how the state shall determine the percentage change in state population (population growth), the TABOR implementing statutes do. For years in which there is not a decennial census, the TABOR implementing statutes require the state to calculate population growth by determining the percentage change between:

• The federal census bureau's estimate of state population (census estimate) for the previous calendar year, as of December in the current calendar year; and
• The census estimate for the current calendar year, as of December in the current calendar year.
• The calculated population growth between the given year and the immediately preceding year will be understated, since the population growth between those years is based on an inaccurately low census estimate for the given year; and
• The understated population growth between the given year and the immediately preceding year is not corrected or carried forward when calculating population growth for subsequent years, as those calculations are based on the revised census estimate for the given year.
• The census estimate, as of December in the previous calendar year, for the previous calendar year; and
• The census estimate, as of December in the current calendar year, for the current calendar year.

The current method for calculating population growth can lead to either double-counting or under-counting population changes in census estimates. If the federal census bureau revises a census estimate upward for a given year:

Put differently, if the federal census bureau revises a census estimate upward for a given year, population growth will be understated and the fiscal year spending limit will be lower. The opposite is true if the federal census bureau revises a census estimate downward. In either case, under the current method for calculating population growth, population growth would be measured inaccurately.

The bill adjusts the method of calculating population growth. Under the bill, population growth is calculated by determining the percentage change between:

This approach prevents double-counting or under-counting population changes as a result of revised census estimates and results in a more accurate measurement of population growth.

The bill also makes conforming amendments.

• Page 3, Line 1Be it enacted by the General Assembly of the State of Colorado:

• Page 3, Line 2SECTION 1.  In Colorado Revised Statutes, 24-77-103, amend

• Page 3, Line 3(2)(b)(I), (2)(b)(II), (2)(b)(II.5)(B), and (2)(b)(II.5)(C); and add (2)(a)(IV) and (2)(b)(I.5) as follows:

• Page 3, Line 424-77-103.  Limitation on state fiscal year spending - legislative

• Page 3, Line 5declaration - report. (2) (a) (IV)  The general assembly further finds and declares that:

• Page 3, Line 6(A)  For the purpose of determining the maximum

• Page 3, Line 7percentage change in state fiscal year spending for any given

• Page 3, Line 8fiscal year, section 20 (7)(a) of article X of the state

• Page 3, Line 9constitution requires the state to annually determine the

• Page 3, Line 10change in state population from one calendar year to the next

• Page 3, Line 11with the use of annual federal census bureau state population estimates;

• Page 3, Line 12(B)  The approach for determining the change in state

• Page 3, Line 13population for state fiscal years commencing before July 1,

• Page 3, Line 142024, resulted in both double-counting and under-counting of

• Page 3, Line 15population as a result of revised federal census bureau state population estimates;

• Page 3, Line 16(C)  Double-counting population for purposes of

• Page 3, Line 17determining the change in state population results in an

• Page 3, Line 18increased limit on state fiscal year spending and under-counting

• Page 3, Line 19population for purposes of determining the change in state

• Page 3, Line 20population results in a reduced limit on state fiscal year spending;

• Page 3, Line 21(D)  From state fiscal year 2015-16 through state fiscal

• Page 3, Line 22year 2024-25, excluding the fiscal year impacted by the

• Page 4, Line 1decennial census, as a result of revised federal census bureau

• Page 4, Line 2estimates of state population, there were three fiscal years

• Page 4, Line 3with significant double-counting, two fiscal years with

• Page 4, Line 4significant under-counting, and four fiscal years with neither significant double-counting nor under-counting;

• Page 4, Line 5(E)  Section 20 (7)(a) of article X of the state constitution

• Page 4, Line 6does not specify how the state shall annually determine the change in state population by annual federal census estimates;

• Page 4, Line 7(F)  In both House Bill 02-1310 and Senate Bill 02-179,

• Page 4, Line 8enacted in 2002, the general assembly modified how the change

• Page 4, Line 9in state population is calculated for purposes of section 20 (7)(a)

• Page 4, Line 10of article X of the state constitution, and these bills are presumed to be constitutional; and

• Page 4, Line 11(G)  Therefore, it is within the general assembly's plenary

• Page 4, Line 12power and consistent with section 20 (7)(a) of article X of the

• Page 4, Line 13state constitution for the general assembly to enact

• Page 4, Line 14legislation that modifies how population growth is calculated

• Page 4, Line 15for purposes of section 20 (7)(a) of article X of the state

• Page 4, Line 16constitution to mitigate both population double-counting and population under-counting.

• Page 4, Line 17(b) (I)  Except as otherwise provided in subparagraphs (II) and

• Page 4, Line 18(II.5) of this paragraph (b) subsections (2)(b)(II) and (2)(b)(II.5) of

• Page 4, Line 19this section, for state fiscal years commencing before July 1,

• Page 4, Line 202024, the percentage change in state population for any given calendar

• Page 4, Line 21year shall be is the percentage change between the estimate of state

• Page 4, Line 22population due to be issued by the United States bureau of census in

• Page 4, Line 23December of such calendar year with a reference date of July 1 of the

• Page 5, Line 1same calendar year and the estimate of state population due to be issued

• Page 5, Line 2by the United States bureau of census in December of the same calendar

• Page 5, Line 3year with a reference date of July 1 of the immediately preceding calendar year.

• Page 5, Line 4(I.5)  For state fiscal years commencing on or after July

• Page 5, Line 51, 2024, the percentage change in state population for any given

• Page 5, Line 6calendar year is the percentage change between the estimate of

• Page 5, Line 7state population issued by the United States bureau of census in

• Page 5, Line 8December of the calendar year with a reference date of July 1

• Page 5, Line 9of the same calendar year and the estimate of state population

• Page 5, Line 10issued by the United States bureau of census in December of the

• Page 5, Line 11immediately preceding calendar year with a reference date of July 1 of the immediately preceding calendar year.

• Page 5, Line 12(II)  Except as otherwise provided in subparagraph (II.5) of this

• Page 5, Line 13paragraph (b) subsection (2)(b)(II.5) of this section, for any calendar

• Page 5, Line 14year for which an estimate of state population is not issued due to the

• Page 5, Line 15federal census of the United States bureau of census, the percentage

• Page 5, Line 16change in state population for such calendar year shall be is the

• Page 5, Line 17percentage change between the state population as reported in the federal

• Page 5, Line 18census conducted by the United States bureau of census due in December

• Page 5, Line 19of such calendar year and the estimate of state population due to be issued

• Page 5, Line 20by the United States bureau of census in December of the same year

• Page 5, Line 21immediately preceding calendar year with a reference date of July 1 of the immediately preceding calendar year.

• Page 5, Line 22(II.5) (B)  The difference between the percentage change in state

• Page 5, Line 23population determined in accordance with subparagraph (II) of this

• Page 5, Line 24paragraph (b) subsection (2)(b)(II) of this section and the reduced

• Page 6, Line 1percentage change in state population used to calculate the limitation on

• Page 6, Line 2state fiscal year spending pursuant to sub-subparagraph (A) of this

• Page 6, Line 3subparagraph (II.5) shall be subsection (2)(b)(II.5)(A) of this section

• Page 6, Line 4is carried forward as an adjustment of the percentage change in state

• Page 6, Line 5population determined pursuant to subparagraph (I) of this paragraph (b)

• Page 6, Line 6subsection (2)(b)(I) or (2)(b)(I.5) of this section for a maximum

• Page 6, Line 7period of nine fiscal years. If the amount of state fiscal year spending for

• Page 6, Line 8the immediately subsequent fiscal year exceeds the limitation on state

• Page 6, Line 9fiscal year spending for that fiscal year, the unused adjustment shall be is

• Page 6, Line 10added first to the percentage change in state population determined

• Page 6, Line 11pursuant to subparagraph (I) of this paragraph (b) subsection (2)(b)(I)

• Page 6, Line 12or (2)(b)(I.5) of this section that is included in the percentage of the

• Page 6, Line 13allowable increase in state fiscal year spending used in calculating the

• Page 6, Line 14limitation on state fiscal year spending for that fiscal year to the greatest

• Page 6, Line 15extent possible without causing the limitation on state fiscal year

• Page 6, Line 16spending to exceed the actual amount of state fiscal year spending for that fiscal year.

• Page 6, Line 17(C)  Any remaining portion of the unused adjustment shall

• Page 6, Line 18continue to be added, to the greatest extent possible, to the percentage

• Page 6, Line 19change in state population determined pursuant to subparagraph (I) of this

• Page 6, Line 20paragraph (b) subsection (2)(b)(I) or (2)(b)(I.5) of this section that

• Page 6, Line 21is included in the percentage of allowable increase in state fiscal year

• Page 6, Line 22spending used in calculating the limitation on state fiscal year spending

• Page 6, Line 23for subsequent fiscal years without causing the limitation on state fiscal

• Page 6, Line 24year spending for a given fiscal year to exceed the actual amount of state fiscal year spending for that fiscal year.

• Page 6, Line 25SECTION 2.  Safety clause. The general assembly finds,

• Page 7, Line 1determines, and declares that this act is necessary for the immediate

• Page 7, Line 2preservation of the public peace, health, or safety or for appropriations for

• Page 7, Line 3the support and maintenance of the departments of the state and state institutions.